Ganfeng Lithium (002460) Third Quarterly Report Comment: Changes in Fair Value Lower Current Income

Ganfeng Lithium (002460) Third Quarterly Report Comment: Changes in Fair Value Lower Current Income
Changes in fair value will reduce current income, and the company foresees net profit attributable to mothers in 20194.28-5.500 million companies released three quarterly reports: the first three quarters of 2019 achieved operating income42.1.1 billion (+17.17%), net profit attributable to mother 3.2.9 billion (-66.15%), 5 after deduction.840,000 yuan (-40.17%), with solid revenue growth.Among them, the single quarter revenue in the third quarter was 13.88 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.98% (corresponding to 19Q1 / Q2 is 26.67% / 16.46%), net profit attributable to mother 33 million (-87.73%); of which, the fair value change in the third quarter was -1.7.5 billion, excluding the influence of this factor, the net profit in a single quarter was about 1.75 billion.Gross profit margin in the third 成都桑拿网 quarter was 21.47%, 7 units in the earlier quarter, due to the decline in product prices. According to wind data, the average price of lithium carbonate in the second quarter was 7.650,000 yuan / ton, the average price in the third quarter of 6.580,000 yuan / ton, the average price is deducted by 14%.At the same time, the company foresees net profit attributable to mothers in 20194.28-5.5 billion. The industry is in a short-term downturn, but the outlook is still bright. From 2015 to 2017, the price of lithium carbonate products has increased significantly, and supply has started to increase significantly since 2018, causing prices to begin to fall.Demand-side crude oil.According to wind data, battery-level lithium carbonate prices start at 16.8 million / ton, fell to the current 5.950,000 yuan / ton, the price fell by about 65%.The industry is currently in a downturn, but the industry’s prospects remain bright.The trend of automobile electrification can be confirmed. The penetration rate of global electric vehicles in 2018 is about 2%, and the industry has huge room for growth.In addition, the growth of photovoltaic wind power and other installed capacity will inevitably drive the long-term growth of energy storage demand. In the future, the demand for lithium storage by energy storage is expected to drive more than electric vehicles.The demand for 2020 is likely to be better than 2019. One is that the country will try to achieve the policy goal of 2 million electric vehicles; the other is that 2020 will be the year when large-scale overseas car companies launch models.Judging from the expansion of production capacity that we have calculated, the pressure is greatest in 2019. At present, the extension of subsequent production capacity expansion is a high probability event, and the industry is expected to usher in an opportunity for improvement in 2020. We are optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of the industry and the company’s internal competitiveness, and maintain the “recommended” ratingHas established long-term strategic relationships with a number of blue chip customers of leading global automotive OEMs.We estimate the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 will be 5 respectively.44 billion, 8.6.3 billion and 10.880,000 yuan, maintaining “recommended” rating risk reminder: failure of overseas investment

Hexing Packaging (002228): Interim Report Net Profit + 11% Poor Demand Makes Performance Under Pressure and Focuses on Asset-Light Model to Accelerate Industry Consolidation

Hexing Packaging (002228): Interim Report Net Profit + 11% Poor Demand Makes Performance Under Pressure and Focuses on Asset-Light Model to Accelerate Industry Consolidation

[Event]The company released its semi-annual report for 2019, reporting a series of 54 realized revenue.

9 ‰, a decrease of 6 per year.

15%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 1.

34 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

99%, the increase in the next ten years after deduction 2.

09% (mainly government subsidies).

By quarter, Q1 / Q2 revenue increased by +8 respectively.

2% /-18.

2%, long-term change in net profit +17.

5% /-13.


In addition, cash flow from operating activities increased by 13 per year.


[Comments]1) Downstream demand is weak, and orders are expected to remain stable.

① The sharp decline in paper prices has dragged down revenue growth.

In terms of business, the revenue of the packaging business decreased by 10 every year.

3% to 40.

20,000 yuan, industry chain service revenue increased in ten years.

5% to 14.

700 million.

The company’s downstream customers include home appliances, daily chemicals, etc., which are highly related to the daily consumption and export boom, and the downstream boom is poor (from January to July, the export value gradually increased by nearly 0.

6%, color TV progressive products increased by ten years.

4%), but considering that Q2 corrugated paper prices fell 26% to 3459 yuan / ton (down 9% from the previous month).

2%), it can be predicted that the company’s order volume as a whole will remain stable, and the performance is expected to continue at the industry level.

② The industry’s economy is not good, and the gross profit margin is slightly repaired.

The gross profit margin of the packaging business increases by 0 every year.

73pct to 15.

46%, mainly due to the decline in paper prices and lag in price adjustment.

The gross profit margin of industry chain services increased by 0 in ten years.

36 points to 4.

96%, the overall remains stable.

③ The cost rate has increased slightly.

On the whole, the period’s expense rate increased by ten years.

2 points to 9.

3%, of which sales / administration expense ratio increased by 0.


6 points to 4.

1% / 3.3%.

2) Industry integration & PSCP business establishes medium and long-term development potential.

Affected by the poor overall economic outlook in the short term, performance growth has improved, but the industry is still in the 杭州桑拿网 stage of gradual integration, and the company’s main asset-lighting platform model to achieve industrial chain integration, the medium and long-term growth potential is huge.

Profit forecast: Net profit is expected to be 2 in 2019-2021.



500 million, corresponding to PE are 17.



7 times.

We are optimistic about the integration trend of the industry and the enhancement of the comprehensive strength of the platform business, and we can expect growth, and maintain the “recommended” level.

Risk warning: paper prices change sharply; operating pressure of small and medium-sized packaging plants deteriorates, intensifying market competition; PSCP business development is less than expected.

Jiangshan Oupai (603208) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Profit Growth Exceeds Expectations, Cash Flows Rise

Jiangshan Oupai (603208) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Profit Growth Exceeds Expectations, Cash Flows Rise

The company released the third quarter report of 19: the company achieved revenue in the first three quarters13.

35 ppm, a 55-year increase.

06%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

80,000 yuan, an annual increase of 66.

62%, net profit after returning to mother 1.

460,000 yuan, an increase of 56 in ten years.

93%, operating cash flow1.

110,000 yuan, an increase of 20 in ten years.

53%; of which single Q3 achieved income 6.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 58 in ten years.

9%, net profit attributable to mother is 98.29 million yuan, an increase of 95.

89%, net profit after returning to the mother is 74.99 million yuan, an annual increase of 69.

97%; profit growth exceeded our expectations, operating cash flow indicators improved significantly in the interim report.

Engineering channel is the core driving force for the company’s high growth performance: Following the high-income growth of the Interim Report, the revenue growth rate in the third quarter has continued to grow rapidly, which is mainly driven by the continuous expansion of engineering channel customers and the volume of core customer orders.

We estimate the growth rate of engineering channels to exceed 80%.

At present, the company has close cooperation with Evergrande, Vanke, Poly, China Shipping, Xuhui, Sunshine City and other real estate clients.

Evergrande and Vanke’s revenue contribution has maintained strong growth this year. At present, the company’s internal share in some real estate leaders has ranked first.

The company’s reputation in engineering business, product quality, supply chain stability, large-scale production, and other aspects 无锡夜网论坛 have formed obvious advantages, which are translated into the volume of core customer orders and the continuous expansion of new customers in the company’s future engineering channels to maintain greaterGrowth has become one of the core drivers of development.

The gross profit margin increased significantly, and the three fee rates remained stable: The third quarter’s increase in the company’s gross profit margin resulted in a quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit.

In the third quarter alone, the company’s gross profit margin was 35.

33%, an annual increase of 0.

84 points, an increase of 2 from the previous month.

3 points.

The gross profit margin increased significantly, and the decrease was related to the recovery of product prices. Due to the adjustment of the panel procurement structure, the price of raw materials decreased.

In the third quarter alone, the company’s sales expense ratio was 11.

6%, management expense ratio 6.

86%, financial expense ratio is 0.

68%, three rates 19.

14%, an increase of 0 every year last year.

45pct, basically stable.

The operating cash flow improved significantly in the third quarter. The merger was the result of the company’s efforts to collect and collect funds and reorganize. The company paid more cash for commercial acceptance at the payment end of the company.

Accounts receivable 3.

9.6 billion, an increase of 63 from the beginning of the period.

58%, the growth rate of accounts receivable is lower than the growth rate of engineering income, which is in line with our expectations.

Profit forecast and investment rating: We will continue to develop the company ‘s downstream customers and increase the volume of core customer orders. We believe that the company ‘s engineering business will maintain rapid growth, which will drive the company ‘s overall performance to grow. Therefore, we raised the company ‘s net profit for 19-21 years respectively.To 2.



31 ppm (original predictor).10/2.


25 ppm), the corresponding EPS is 2.

80, 3.

36, 4.

09 yuan, the current corresponding PE is expected to be 15X, 12X, 10X, maintaining the “buy” level.

Risk warning: production capacity is less than expected risk; raw material price fluctuation risk.

Zhongyuan Securities (601375): Investment Bank Outperforms Net Profit for Half a Year + 65%

Zhongyuan Securities (601375): Investment Bank Outperforms Net Profit for Half a Year + 65%

Investment Highlights: Henan’s only legal person securities company, the A and H listing and financing capabilities have been enhanced, all lines have been comprehensively reformed, and a high dividend rate has been maintained.

Reasonable value range 5.


41 yuan, maintaining “Neutral” rating[Event]Zhongyuan Securities realized revenue of 1.3 billion US dollars in the first half of 2019, + 49% per year; net profit attributable to mothers was 200 million US dollars, more than + 65%; corresponding to EPS0.

06 yuan.

In the second quarter, the operating income was 6 ‰, ten years + 52%; the net profit attributable to mothers was 1 ‰, ten years + 32%.

Net profit has been increasing mainly due to the substantial increase in investment bank business net income and investment income, including fair value.

In the first half of 2019, brokerage / underwriting / asset management / quotation / investment income accounted for 23% / 7% / 3% / 5% / 39% of operating income, respectively.

Brokerage business services are optimized, and revenues increase every year.

Realize brokerage income of 30,000 yuan, + 36% per year.

The company follows the development trend of the industry, and continues to promote the transformation and reform of the brokerage business to wealth management from the aspects of appropriate customer service, preliminary service standardization, and service branding.

The company continuously optimizes the “Fortune Central Plains” customer classification and classification service system to increase customer satisfaction and awareness of the company’s products and service brands.

The investment banking business grew rapidly, and the scale of underwriting of stock bonds increased significantly.

Realized underwriting income of 10,000 yuan, + 182% for the whole year.

The share and debt underwriting scales are + 858% and + 442% each year, respectively.

The underwriting scale of the equity is 19 trillion; 3 refinancing companies have an underwriting scale of 19 trillion.

The main underwriting scale of bonds was 4.3 billion; the underwriting scale of corporate bonds and corporate bonds reached 3 billion and 1.3 billion, respectively.

There are 19 IPO reserve projects, ranking 30th, of which there are 3 main boards, 3 GEM boards, and 1 science and technology board.

Pioneer asset management new regulations require that the scale and proportion of collective asset management increase.

In the first half of 2019, asset management income was zero.

$ 4.1 billion, -23% a year.

The company’s strict new regulations on budget asset management required active adjustments to its business layout. As of the end of June 19, the scale of entrusted asset management was US $ 9.7 billion, of which US $ 5.9 billion was pooled asset management, + 15% from the end of the previous year; US $ 3 billion was targeted asset management, Compared to the end of last year -42%; special asset management 70,000 yuan, compared to the end of last year-23%.

The investment capacity has been improved, and the level of self-operated investment has been greatly improved.

The company achieved net investment income (including fair value) of 500 million US dollars in the first half of the year, + 211% per year.

The company’s proprietary trading business lines have been reformed through investment processes, organizational structures, and performance assessments to improve their active investment capabilities, adhere to sound operating strategies, and refine liquidity management to better achieve half-year returns, bond market returns, and income levelsSignificantly improved.

[Investment recommendation]We expect the company’s annual net profit for 2019-2021E to be 0.

10, 0.

10, 0.

10 yuan, net assets are 2 respectively.

67, 2.

71, 2.

76 yuan.

Considering that the company has always adhered to a high dividend rate, the average proportion of cash dividends in the past three years accounted for more than 58% of the net profit attributable to the parent.

The long-term and stable high dividends are conducive to increasing the enthusiasm of investors for allocation, and at the 佛山桑拿网 same time it shows the confidence of the industry in the improvement of the company’s future performance.

In addition, A + H is listed, with strong financing capabilities, and capital consumption businesses are expected to accelerate growth.

We give it slightly higher than the industry’s estimate, giving it 2 in 2019.


4 times P / B, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 5.34-6.

41 yuan, maintain “Neutral” rating.

Risk Warning: The continued downturn in the market will lead to the expansion of business scale and further strengthening of market supervision.

Yili shares (600887): the top 20 in the world entered the top eight!

Invesco Great Wall is still adding positions!

Can we catch Nestlé and Danone in the future?

Yili shares (600887): the top 20 in the world entered the top eight!

Invesco Great Wall is still adding positions!
Can we catch Nestlé and Danone in the future?

1) Future growth-Look at the adjustment of high-end product structure, whether there are high-end explosive models launched, second look at the overall scale of the industry, and third, see if the market share increase can continue to rise to the level of mature market giants.

  2) Growth-driven-The city’s share has increased, and high-end categories have increased in volume.

  3) Moat-The sales channel is an important moat for this business, from the big dealer model to the deep till small dealer model.

In addition, considering the perishable nature of dairy products and consumer expectations for safety, channel control is at the core.

Judging from the channel moats of domestic dairy companies in general, this case is clearly leading.

In addition, the channels of normal temperature milk and beverages are highly overlapping, so its expansion into the beverage field is also quite easy.

And this is exactly the expansion line of Danone in France.

  4) Market structure-With reference to the experience of mature markets, the market is in the form of a oligopoly. Therefore, the track on which this case is located is far from mature and is still in the growth stage of the duopoly competition.

Due to the uneven distribution of milk sources, the normal liquid milk industry is dominated by room temperature milk, which means that the structure of liquid milk in the future can refer to the mature low temperature milk structure ratio of 65:35 in European mature markets.98% different.

Under such an industry structure, this case has an absolute absolute advantage in the field of room temperature milk (deep channel cultivation + room temperature milk market leader).

  5) Tracking indicator-quarterly gross sales difference.

In this study, when tracking the cost of upstream milk prices, we found that the change in upstream milk prices is more difficult to predict, but that the company’s operating capacity is offsetting changes in milk prices.

Historical experience can be ground up. When the upstream milk price rises, the gross profit margin is under pressure. At this time, the net profit rate will be stabilized by raising prices, upgrading the structure, and reducing sales expenses (that is, the attenuation of promotional discounts).

Therefore,淡水桑拿网 the gross sales difference in the following quarters will become an important tracking indicator. The gross sales difference indicates that its ability to pass on costs is strong and the brand moat is high.

Conversely, when the upstream costs increase, if the company’s gross profit rate declines, the sales expense rate rises (discount promotions), resulting in changes in the gross sales gap, indicating that its sales-end pressure penetrates.

  6) In terms of ROIC performance, in the first quarter of 2019, the ROIC excluding cash in the interim report and the third quarterly report were 88.

19%, 61.

93%, 41.

6%, the reason for the fluctuation is the three quarterly report plus short-term debt interruption.

  7) Risk factors: A, the proportion of chairman’s shareholding, only 3.


After the completion of this equity incentive, the shareholding ratio was increased to 4.

7%, follow-up needs to pay attention to equity incentives; B, the business model of upstream and downstream financing, may make it difficult to convert the situation of stocks from financial reports.

Perfect World (002624): 19 years of Q1 performance dazzling games + rich reserves of follow-up products

Perfect World (002624): 19 years of Q1 performance dazzling games + rich reserves of follow-up products

Event: The company achieved revenue of 80 in 18 years.

3.4 billion (previously +1.

3%), achieving net profit attributable to mother 17.

0.6 billion (+13 per year.

4%); the company achieved 20 in 2019Q1 revenue.

4.2 billion (+13.

3%, excluding the impact of the cinema line on the actual growth rate + 33%), to achieve net profit attributable to mothers4.

8.6 billion yuan (+ 35%), net profit attributable to non-parents + 57%, Q1 profit exceeded the performance forecast upper limit, we judge that the “Perfect World” mobile game launched in March will have a positive effect on the company’s Q1 performance.

In 18 years, the growth rate of game revenue declined slightly, and the film and television business performed well.

The company’s 18-year overall game revenue was 54.

21 trillion (-4% a year), film and television income of 26.

1.3 billion (+14.

6%), the game business and film and television business accounted for 67% of total revenue.

5% and 32.

Specifically, in 18 years, the company ‘s mobile games, mobile games, and console games will grow at +10% /-12% /-11%, and TV drama revenue in the film and television business will be at least + 5%.The game business was mainly affected by the suspension of version numbers, which resulted in a slight decline in revenue, while the high growth of the film and television business, especially TV dramas, led to overall revenue stability.

The company’s 18-year gross margin / net margin were 55.

8% and 21.

9% respectively decreased by 1.

6pct and boost 3.

5pct, selling expense ratio 10.

96%, increase by 1 every year.

58 points.

The “Perfect World” mobile game has become an explosion, and the game business is expected to welcome the outbreak in 19 years.

In March 19, the company relied on the end game big IP “Perfect World” to develop the “Perfect World” mobile game officially launched. The next day, it ranked second on the iOS bestseller list, and on the fourth day, it topped the iOS bestseller list. The first month of release, “Perfect World” mobile games topped the iOS bestseller list for more than half the time, and we think the game will bring performance flexibility to the company.

At the same time, the company is expected to launch “The Condor Heroes 2”, “The New Demon Continent”, “Four Seasons Songs In Cloud Dreams”, “Dream Collection Cygnus”, “New Swordsman”, “My Origin”, etc.Several games cover MMORPG, turn-based, two-dimensional, sandbox, SLG, ARPG, open world and many other types and alternative new games.

In addition, the company reached a strategic cooperation with Google to lay out the game, and cooperated with Valve Company to establish Steam China, which reflects the company’s forward-looking layout in game-related businesses and solidifies its competitive advantage.

The 19-year reserve project of the film and television business is still rich, and TV dramas are still important features.

From 18 years to now, the company has produced excellent TV dramas such as “Blade Attack”, “Scorching Fire”, “Summer This Summer”, “Returning Home”, “Going Out of Fire”, “The Most Beautiful Youth”, “Sweet Honey and Ashes”Internet dramas have been broadcast one after another, and the company’s TV drama business has achieved high growth for 18 years.

Judging 夜来香体验网 from the film list disclosed by the company, the production was completed in 19 years, and there were 22 TV series in post-production and shooting, and 14 projects were planned. In 19 years, 10 films were planned for film production and distribution. Overall, we believe that the companyFilm and television business performance is expected to remain stable.

profit prediction.

We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.

68 yuan, 1.

95 yuan and 2.

23 yuan.

With reference to the consensus PE expectations of comparable companies in 2019, considering the company’s leading size, we give the company 18 in 2019?
22 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 30.

twenty four?
96 yuan, maintaining the sustainable market rating.

risk warning.
Delays in launching new products; stricter policy supervision; duration of end-game products.

Sino-Singapore (002912) coverage report for the first time: 5G continued growth can be expected

Sino-Singapore (002912) coverage report for the first time: 5G continued growth can be expected

Sino-Singapore: Network visualization leader from “front-end” to “local”.

As one of the leading providers of network visualization infrastructure products in China, the company has focused on network visualization infrastructure products and their applications in the field of information security since its inception.

The main business is network visualization infrastructure products, big 杭州桑拿网 data operation products and network content security products.

Shenzhen Venture Capital is a major shareholder and Shenzhen SASAC has actual control.

Benefiting from 5G technology innovation and traffic explosion, network visualization ushers in major opportunities.

The Internet penetration rate is close to 60%, traffic consumption is growing rapidly, and 4G users continue to grow, bringing a lot of demand to the network visualization product market. According to statistics from CCID Consulting, it is estimated that the scale will reach 199 in 2018.

8.9 billion.

The future trends of the network visualization industry are: 1.

Information security threats and impacts strengthened, and content and traffic regulation became the norm; 2.

Internet traffic has increased sharply, and telecom operators’ “smart pipeline” operation has become inevitable; 3.

To tap the potential value of network traffic, “Big Data Management of Traffic” has become an innovative trend.

5G industrialization has achieved initial results, and the government and enterprise have joined forces to promote the steady development of the industry.

According to ITU speculation, 5G may be officially commercialized in 2020.

New technologies such as 5G NFV, SDN, network slicing, and cloud deployment will also bring new development potential for the information security industry and the upstream network visualization market in the information security industry.

The most complete product line, sales model and R & D advantages create high profitability.

From the perspective of products, the company has the most complete network visualization product line in terms of data source breadth and business application richness, and the integrity of the closed-loop architecture of the overall solution.

The cooperation of broadband network + mobile network products with big data operation platforms and network content security products ensures that the company is always in the leading position in the industry.

From the perspective of sales, the government is the company’s main customer, and the price is relatively insensitive, which is conducive to maintaining the company’s high gross profit.

The company adopts a sales model based on direct sales and supplemented by distribution to directly meet customer needs and provide customized solutions.

From the perspective of research and development, the company’s research and development helps maintain a high level, and 5G and other new product pre-research technologies are leading.

The above results in the company’s high profitability, the company’s gross profit margin and net profit are higher than their peers.

At the same time, the company realized advance payment in 20185.

5.6 billion, an increase of 117% over the same period, owning inventory 2.

2.8 billion, flat in 2017, and the continued growth of inventories and advance receipts indicates a high growth in the company’s orders.

With a target market value of 14.1 billion, it is given a “Buy” rating.

We predict that the company will achieve revenue in 2019-2021.

61, 12.

74, 16.

90 trillion, with a growth rate of 39.

1%, 32.

6%, 32.

6%, realized profit 2.

82, 3.

89, 5.

51 ppm, with a growth rate of 38.

0%, 37.

9%, 41.

6%.Considering the company’s high growth, the industry’s leading level and the network visualization traffic demand explosion and technological innovation brought by the 5G post-cycle, with reference to the valuation of comparable companies, the company is given 50 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a market size of USD 14.1 billion.

Risk warning: 5G business progress is less than expected; government and operator network visualization investment is less than expected; key assumptions may risk error.

Yuantong Express (600233): Steady Growth in Profits Maintains Overweight Grade

Yuantong Express (600233): Steady Growth in Profits Maintains “Overweight” Grade

Earnings have steadily increased, maintaining an “overweight” rating of 1Q19, and Yuantong’s recursive parent net profit was 3.

6.5 billion (+15.

7%), lower than our United Nations expectations of 4.

0.5 billion.

Based on the assumption of moderate price competition, we maintain Yuantong Express’s EPS forecast for 19/20/21 of 0.



15 yuan, maintain “overweight” rating and target price range.


30 yuan (19-21X PE in 19 years).

The number of pieces maintained a rapid growth, the profit was lower than our expectations in 1Q19, and the national express delivery business volume was 13.5 billion pieces (+22.

5%), the average price of 12 pieces.

7 yuan (-0.

9%); Yuantong Express has completed 16.

5.7 billion pieces (+39.

6%), the volume growth rate is higher than the industry 17.

2pp, market share is 13.

6%, -0.

3pp, +1 per second.


The company realized revenue of 64.

4.4 billion (+20杭州夜网论坛.

7%), gross profit 7.

800 million (+18.

7%), gross margin of 12.

1% (-0.

2pp); net profit to mother 3.

6.5 billion (+15.

7%), lower than our United Nations expectations of 4.

0.5 billion, net profit after deduction to return to mother 3.

5.7 billion (+19.


The cost of single tickets was stable compared with the previous month, and the decline in single ticket revenue drove down the single ticket profit by 1Q19. Yuantong Express revealed that the single ticket revenue was 3.

35 yuan (-10.

8%), the price fell 9 in the earlier 3Q18 / 4Q18.
6% / 9.

The slight increase of 1% indicates that the price competition in the industry is still very competitive.

Excluding Yuantong International, we estimate that the single ticket income is 3.
39 yuan (-10.

9%), which is basically the same as the reveal caliber; the cost of a single ticket2.

99 yuan (-10.

7%), which continued the cost reduction for 18 years; but the gross profit per ticket was 0.

40 yuan (-12.

1%), single ticket net profit 0.

21 yuan (-16.

6%), the overall decline.

Optimize the trunk route straight line, aviation + overseas differentiation In 2018, the company built / rebuilt / expanded / relocated 3/16/14 migration centers, the layout of the transfer center continued to be optimized; vigorously purchased its own trunk vehicles, and increased the use of drop-off vehicles,The cost of transit and trunk lines is significantly reduced.

At the same time, Yuantong is also one of the additional private express delivery companies with its own airlines in China, ending the fleet at the end of 18 to reach 12 aircrafts.

The company continues to accelerate integration with Yuantong International, complement each other and collaborate to create cost-effective cross-border logistics fully connected products and services, and comprehensively expand strategic cooperation on cross-border e-commerce platforms.

Maintaining the “overweight” rating and target price range In the first quarter of 19, Yuantong Express maintained a rapid growth in volume and continued to increase market share, but intense price competition eroded earnings.

Looking ahead, the uncertainty in the cost adjustment of subsidy policy adjustments and the optimization of trunk transfers lies in market competition. Based on the assumption of moderate price competition, we maintain Yuantong Express’s EPS forecast for 19/20/210.



15 yuan, corresponding to the current expectation of 17.




Comparable company Shentong / Yunda corresponding to 19 years Wind unanimously expected PE 16.


0X, if industry competition slows down in the second half of the year, and Yuantong’s profit may still exceed expectations, we give the company 19-21 XPE for 19 years and maintain an “overweight” rating and target price range of 15.


30 yuan.

Risk Warning: The industry’s growth rate is lower than expected, the price war, and the impact of social security costs.

China Communications Construction (601800): New long-term single expectation to maintain strong cash flow in the second half of the year attempts to improve

China Communications Construction (601800): New long-term single expectation to maintain strong cash flow in the second half of the year attempts to improve

Company status On June 20, we invited the company to participate in the 2019 mid-term strategy meeting. At the meeting, the company leaders and investors exchanged information on the company’s business status. The main points are as follows.

Comments on the new unimodal are expected to remain strong.

The company’s new long-term single-year growth of 13 in the first quarter of 19.

4% before the beginning of 2018 (+1.

(1% year-on-year).

Looking into the second half of the year, the company expects the unit production growth in the new half of the year to remain strong, mainly because: 1) the growth base in the second half of the year is significantly lower than the first half; 2) the new special debt regulations are expected to drive the rapid release of infrastructure projects.

The company is expected to achieve the initial growth target of 8% of new growth orders with a high probability. Among them, domestic and overseas new growth orders will increase by 6-10% and more than 10% by region; by area, municipalities, subways, and ChinaWestern highways and railways are expected to achieve rapid growth.

Local government funds are still tight, and 厦门夜网 the company’s cash flow may improve in the second half of the year.

Although local bonds have been issued centrally since the beginning of the year, due to the breakthrough in the scale of national infrastructure projects each year, local government payments for engineering funds and the need for funding from suppliers are offset, funding is still tight, and payments for project delivery have not improved significantly.The operating cash flow of the leading companies in the first half of the year is still under pressure.

We expect the new special debt regulations in the second half of the year and the supporting policies that may be introduced in the future or how to act on the situation of local government funding constraints.

Actively control the progress of PPP business development.

Considering that the return on investment of PPP projects has been lower than before 成都桑拿网 (currently around 6-9%) and the recovery of investment in existing projects is slower than expected, the company will appropriately reduce the pace of PPP business development: in terms of supplementary projects, the company will control new projectsScale, the budget PPP project contract amount will be controlled within 150 billion; in terms of existing projects, the company’s past PPP business has formed nearly 180 billion US dollars of existing assets, the future will be realized through asset transfer, asset securitization and other means to realize the realization of existing PPP business(A budget of 300 trillion for asset securitization will be arranged in 2019, but it may not be fully used).

The preliminary gross profit margin is expected to initially recover.

In 2018, the company’s gross profit margin fell relatively to zero.

5ppt to 13.

5%, mainly due to the decline in the percentage of revenue from overseas business and investment projects with high gross profit margins and the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials such as sand and gravel.

In 2019, the Malaysian East Coast Railway project has resumed, and the proportion of overseas business revenue has rebounded more than expected. At the same time, the company has expanded the scope of the impact of the increase in the price of sandstone aggregates on budget management and gradually improved the gross profit margin.

It is estimated that the current company A / H shares are traded at 8.

1x / 4.

7x 2019e P / E.

We maintain our company’s A / H share profit forecast, “recommended” rating and target price.

1 yuan / 12.

0 adjustments are not changed (corresponding to 12x / 8x 2019e P / E respectively), implying 42% / 61% of upside respectively.

Venture capital investment overall was lower than expected and cash flow was weaker than expected.

Opening to the outside world “fast forward

for nearly one year

Opening to the outside world “fast forward” for nearly one year

Securities Daily ■ Our reporter, Meng Ke On November 22, a reporter from “Securities Daily” combed through the relevant opening-up policy published by the CSRC website and found that in June this year, Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, proposed to expand the opening-up of the capital market.As for the specific measures, 9 items are expected to be completed today and 6 items are expected to be completed. It is expected that the capital market will be opened to the outside world by pressing the “fast forward key”.

  Specifically, on November 15, the website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission released the “Guidelines for Applying for” Full Circulation “of Unlisted Shares in H-share Companies”. Qualified H-share companies and companies intending to apply for the IPO of H-shares can be regulated according to lawApply for “full circulation”.

On October 11, the Securities Regulatory Commission will cancel the time limit for removing the foreign exchange ratio of securities companies, futures companies, and fund management companies.

In July and August, the CSRC separately approved and agreed to the previous futures trading of rice, urea, No. 20 rubber, and futures trading of styrene and stainless steel.

On July 26, the CSRC issued the Measures for the Administration of Representative Offices of Overseas Securities and Futures Exchanges in China.

  In addition, since the beginning of this year, the A-share division of the FTSE Russell Global Index and the Ming Sheng Index have absorbed GEM stocks for the first time.One after another.

  Pan Helin, Executive Dean of the Digital Economics Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, told the Securities Daily reporter that vigorously supporting foreign capital entering the market is an important step to promote the opening up of the domestic capital market, which will help deepen capital market reforms and increase capital market risks.Preventive capabilities, enhance capital market resource 夜来香体验网 allocation capabilities, and keep the internal capital market open to the same extent as the economic opening process.

  What is certain is that under the background that the CSRC is continuously opening up to the outside world and the capital market is being increasingly opened to the outside world, foreign inflows will also be more sustained and stable.

According to data from Oriental, as of November 22, the net inflow of northbound funds in the past year was 2,729.

2.8 billion.

  Pan Helin said that from the data point of view, the sincerity of internal and external openings has changed into an influx of foreign capital. Relevant departments still need to do a good job of relevant supervision, so as to do a good job in cross-border coordination, create a good capital market environment and improveThe level of risk management has helped to form a recognized opening up of the capital market.

  Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, said in an interview with “Securities Daily” reporter that with the gradual implementation of the capital market’s opening up reform and the three major international indexes continue to increase the proportion of A shares, we can see that at presentIt is still in the initial stage of foreign inflows. In the early stage, the inflow of A shares was passively allocated. Later, more active funds will be allocated to A shares.

The stock selection strategy is basically looking for deterministic returns, so it favors the leading stocks in the financial, large consumer, medical and other industries.

Focusing on the majority of foreign exchange entering A-shares is mostly medium- and long-term institutional funds. Therefore, it is conducive to improving the structure and investment style of A-share investors, and promoting the transformation of A-shares into an institutionalized style and value investment.

  ”At present, the scale of domestic foreign exchange investment is relatively stable, with a slight increase. The recovery of the global economy in the future, coupled with the continuous deepening of the opening up of the domestic capital market, there is still much room for foreign capital inflows in the future.

Pan He Lin said.