Ganfeng Lithium (002460) Third Quarterly Report Comment: Changes in Fair Value Lower Current Income

Ganfeng Lithium (002460) Third Quarterly Report Comment: Changes in Fair Value Lower Current Income
Changes in fair value will reduce current income, and the company foresees net profit attributable to mothers in 20194.28-5.500 million companies released three quarterly reports: the first three quarters of 2019 achieved operating income42.1.1 billion (+17.17%), net profit attributable to mother 3.2.9 billion (-66.15%), 5 after deduction.840,000 yuan (-40.17%), with solid revenue growth.Among them, the single quarter revenue in the third quarter was 13.88 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.98% (corresponding to 19Q1 / Q2 is 26.67% / 16.46%), net profit attributable to mother 33 million (-87.73%); of which, the fair value change in the third quarter was -1.7.5 billion, excluding the influence of this factor, the net profit in a single quarter was about 1.75 billion.Gross profit margin in the third 成都桑拿网 quarter was 21.47%, 7 units in the earlier quarter, due to the decline in product prices. According to wind data, the average price of lithium carbonate in the second quarter was 7.650,000 yuan / ton, the average price in the third quarter of 6.580,000 yuan / ton, the average price is deducted by 14%.At the same time, the company foresees net profit attributable to mothers in 20194.28-5.5 billion. The industry is in a short-term downturn, but the outlook is still bright. From 2015 to 2017, the price of lithium carbonate products has increased significantly, and supply has started to increase significantly since 2018, causing prices to begin to fall.Demand-side crude oil.According to wind data, battery-level lithium carbonate prices start at 16.8 million / ton, fell to the current 5.950,000 yuan / ton, the price fell by about 65%.The industry is currently in a downturn, but the industry’s prospects remain bright.The trend of automobile electrification can be confirmed. The penetration rate of global electric vehicles in 2018 is about 2%, and the industry has huge room for growth.In addition, the growth of photovoltaic wind power and other installed capacity will inevitably drive the long-term growth of energy storage demand. In the future, the demand for lithium storage by energy storage is expected to drive more than electric vehicles.The demand for 2020 is likely to be better than 2019. One is that the country will try to achieve the policy goal of 2 million electric vehicles; the other is that 2020 will be the year when large-scale overseas car companies launch models.Judging from the expansion of production capacity that we have calculated, the pressure is greatest in 2019. At present, the extension of subsequent production capacity expansion is a high probability event, and the industry is expected to usher in an opportunity for improvement in 2020. We are optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of the industry and the company’s internal competitiveness, and maintain the “recommended” ratingHas established long-term strategic relationships with a number of blue chip customers of leading global automotive OEMs.We estimate the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 will be 5 respectively.44 billion, 8.6.3 billion and 10.880,000 yuan, maintaining “recommended” rating risk reminder: failure of overseas investment